About the CEO Outlook Index
Executives' comments in quarterly earnings calls provide insights not just into their company's future, but also into broader sector and macroeconomic trends. To capture these signals, a large language model (LLM)–based virtual survey processes CEO speech and simulates how executives would respond to established economic surveys. The resulting indicator closely aligns with well-known benchmarks such as the Business Roundtable Outlook, the S&P PMI, and the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey—helping improve the timely detection of shifts in the US economic cycle.
Why Use This Index?
Business Cycle Insights
Timely evaluation of the business cycle enables more effective sector rotation in equities and smarter cross-asset allocation between equities and bonds, ultimately improving strategy returns.
Anticipate Economic Shifts
By identifying inflection points in real time, the indicator provides an early warning of regime changes and offers a clearer view of the future trajectory of the US economy.
Comprehensive Coverage
Monitor CEO outlook across multiple dimensions: sales expectations, capital spending, employment, and overall business sentiment.
Backed by Research
Validated through rigorous academic research and empirical analysis
Key Insight
Both indices reached their lowest points during the two major downturns: the 2008–2009 global financial crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 shock. In each episode, the index not only captures sharp declines but also tends to lead the survey-based series, particularly at the onset of the 2008 crisis and the early-2020s recession.
Survey Alignment
Empirical results demonstrate superior alignment with official surveys including:
- Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook
- S&P Global PMI Survey
- Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Early Signals
Detects turning points earlier than common proxies, providing valuable lead time for:
- Economic recession identification
- Market volatility prediction
- Corporate activity forecasting
Statistical Analysis: Similarity Metrics
Comprehensive validation across multiple statistical measures
Correlation, Granger Causality, and Directional Accuracy
| Index | Correlation | Granger L1 | Granger L2 | Dir. Accuracy | Sym. Dir. Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales Expectations | 0.857 | 0.010 | 0.034 | 0.697 | 0.908 |
| Capital Expenditures | 0.860 | 0.016 | 0.017 | 0.658 | 0.921 |
| Employment | 0.891 | 0.003 | 0.004 | 0.600 | 0.933 |
| CEO Outlook | 0.905 | 0.010 | 0.007 | 0.697 | 0.908 |
DTW, Cosine, and LCSS Similarity Metrics
| Index | DTW | Normalized DTW | Cosine Similarity | LCSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales Expectations | 3.321 | 0.043 | 0.857 | 0.948 |
| Capital Expenditures | 3.453 | 0.045 | 0.860 | 0.961 |
| Employment | 2.942 | 0.039 | 0.891 | 0.987 |
| CEO Outlook | 3.050 | 0.040 | 0.905 | 0.987 |
Statistical Metrics Legend
- •Granger L1/L2 = Granger Causality (Lag 1/2)
- •Dir. Accuracy = Directional Accuracy
- •Sym. Dir. Accuracy = Symmetric Directional Accuracy
- •DTW = Dynamic Time Warping
- •LCSS = Longest Common Subsequence Similarity
- •Higher values indicate better alignment
Data & Downloads
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CEO Outlook Index
Download the comprehensive CEO outlook index data containing time series, aspects (sales, capital spending, employment), and overall outlook metrics.
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Get in touch with our research team
For questions about the our CEO Outlook Index, methodology, or data access, please contact our research team. We welcome collaboration opportunities and are happy to discuss potential applications of this research.
Primary Contact:
AIDFCRIClientServicesTeam@nus.edu.sgInstitution:
National University of Singapore